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YATU · Institutional Form · Metroplex Data · San Antonio–New Braunfels MSA
Stress Tier 3

This profile documents the structural-stress signature of San Antonio as of 2026. The data is sourced and verifiable; the framework reading that contextualizes it is at The Compelled Correction · Institutional Form.

One note before the data: parents in Texas who chose alternatives to public schools — homeschool, classical schools, religious schools, micro-schools, the TEFA program — were responding to real and reasonable concerns about educational fit for their children. The framework reads their choice as one of the operational channels through which the broader Earth-trigon institutional-form contraction is occurring, not as cause of the contraction. The public-district math would shift even without expanded school choice; the choice expansion is the visible operational channel through which the structural correction becomes faster.

San Antonio–New Braunfels MSA

County coverage: Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Wilson, Atascosa, Bandera, Medina Stress tier: 3 One-line read: Public-sector contraction is now structural — multiple ISDs closing schools simultaneously, USAA bleeding white-collar jobs, and Bexar County hitting its debt ceiling even as city fiscal management remains strong.

School Districts

Northside ISD (NISD) — Enrollment 97,600, down from 2019 peak of ~107,800; projected fall 2026 ~96,000. Adopted total tax rate $1.0049/$100, taxable value ~$75.8B. $38M deficit FY26; considering 3-cent VATRE plus ~$400M bond Nov 2026. Last bond passed 2022 at $992M; cumulative bond authorization since 1995: $4.97B. San Antonio Report | KSAT | NISD Tax

North East ISD (NEISD) — Lost ~12,000 students over past decade. $39M deficit; needs $10M/year cuts for three years. Closed/consolidated three campuses (Driscoll Middle, Wilshire Elementary, Clear Spring Elementary) effective 2025-26, saving $6.6M in staffing. SA Current | NEISD

San Antonio ISD (SAISD) — Enrollment ~44,180 projected 2025-26. Adopted $541.1M budget; prior $54M shortfall narrowed. Closing Rhodes Middle School end of 2025-26; students absorbed by Tafolla. Weighing bond + tax-rate election November 2026. San Antonio Report | KSAT | TPR

Judson ISD — $37M shortfall FY25-26. Closing four schools (Judson Middle, Rolling Meadows Elementary, Park Village Blended Learning Academy, Franz Leadership Academy) for 2026-27 — saves $7M. Prior VATRE rejected 60-40. Considering staff cuts to balance FY26-27. Community Impact | San Antonio Report

East Central ISD — Enrollment ~13,000; projected 25,617 by 2033 — one of MSA's fastest growers. May 2025: voters approved $309M bond (66%) for three new schools; 8-cent tax-rate hike effective 2027. San Antonio Report

Harlandale ISD — Enrollment ~11,814. Per-pupil $14,401; revenue $185.96M. Flagged among "troubled" Bexar districts with consolidation under discussion. DATA GAP — current FY26 budget posture. Texas Tribune Schools Explorer

South San Antonio ISD — Cited alongside Harlandale among financially struggling/enrollment-declining districts; consolidation questions raised. DATA GAP — specific FY26 deficit + tax rate.

Southwest ISD — Closing Sky Harbour Elementary to address budget deficit and shifting enrollment. DATA GAP — deficit magnitude. San Antonio Report

Comal ISD (New Braunfels area) — Enrollment 30,300+ and growing. May 2023 voters approved $588.5M bond package; 17 active projects in 2026. Growth district — opposite stress profile from Bexar-core ISDs. Community Impact

Edgewood ISD / New Braunfels ISD / Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD — DATA GAP — needs manual research.

Housing Market

The San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA continues its multi-year correction from a June 2022 peak of roughly $340,000 (single-family median per SABOR). April 2026's $307K SABOR median sits about 9.7% below that peak in nominal terms — and meaningfully further once inflation is factored in. Zillow's broader $279,198 AVM is down 1.9% YoY and Redfin's $260K is down 3.3% YoY, with DOM stretching to ~99 days (+13%) against ~6.1 months of supply (SABOR April report, TPR).

Softest sub-areas — weakness concentrates in the commuter belt and far-NW spec corridors: - New Braunfels ZIP 78130: active-listing growth alongside ~104-day DOM and ~9.8-month supply, with Zillow showing the city -3.2% YoY to $345,319 (Zillow NB, Community Impact) - San Marcos: posted April median $303,500, -19.2% YoY — the sharpest move in the metro (Neuhaus Realty) - Stone Oak/78258: down roughly 1-4% on Zillow/Homes.com but Redfin's transaction-based read shows -7.4% to $440K, signaling top-tier softness (Redfin Stone Oak) - Cibolo, Schertz NE-corridor, and far-NW Helotes-adjacent developments are flagged as the softest sub-segments due to builder spec overhang (Tami Price market analysis)

New construction overhang: - The metro carries roughly 8,915 active new-construction listings across 672 communities, with new-home DOM at ~86 days and ~5.9 months of inventory — the most buyer-friendly builder market in years - Existing homes still drive most closings, but builders are absorbing share via rate buydowns (5.99-6.25% offered), closing-cost credits, and design-center concessions (Veteran Real Estate SA, Tami Price builder incentives)

Military-base areas — outperforming the metro: - VA-buyer corridors near Randolph (Schertz/Universal City/Cibolo, $220-500K), Fort Sam Houston (Terrell Hills/Alamo Heights/Northeast, $250-600K+), and Lackland (Westside/Lytle, $200-450K) are described as roughly flat to +5% YoY, cushioned by ~2.9% lower 2026 BAH but steady PCS demand and mid-6% VA-loan rates (Tami Price JBSA neighborhoods, Sharp Realty Fort Sam guide)

Employment / Layoffs

Higher Education

Local Government Fiscal Health

Voucher / School Choice

This compounds existing enrollment-driven deficits at NISD, NEISD, SAISD, and Judson — the four already-contracting urban-core districts.

Framework Read

San Antonio shows the classic pattern of public-institution contraction running ahead of headline economic stress: four major Bexar-core ISDs simultaneously closing campuses and running structural deficits while the suburban-growth ring (Comal, East Central) absorbs displacement. TEFA arrives July 1 as an enrollment accelerant on already-bleeding districts, with SA running above state average for public-to-private voucher migration. City fiscal management remains a bright spot (true AAA), but Bexar County hitting its debt ceiling and USAA's persistent white-collar cuts signal the private-sector backstop is thinning even as housing softens at the margin.

Sources

This profile is one of sixteen source-verified metroplex stress files compiled 2026-05-22. The framework reading that contextualizes the 20-metro dataset as a whole is at The Compelled Correction · Institutional Form. The substrate-redirection principle this work applies is at The Compelled Correction · Hub. Polished AEO canon page for this metroplex: /metro/san-antonio.

Last updated: 2026-05-22 (research snapshot) · 2026-05-23 (surface). For data corrections: contact via yatubook.com.