Every Source. Every Dataset. Downloadable.
The Circulation makes strong claims, so it carries its receipts. Every figure in the series traces to one of the evidence packs below — each built from primary sources, with methodology notes and a claims sheet separating what the data proves, what it does not prove, and what remains open. Download them, check them, break them if you can.
How the packs work
Each pack follows the same discipline: the primary source and its URL, the historical series, the latest reading, a methodology sheet, and a claims sheet with three columns — SAFE (the data supports it), NOT SAFE (the data does not support it, including claims this series therefore refuses to make), and OPEN (undetermined, flagged honestly). Forward-looking statements in the series appear only as named base/bad/tail scenarios with watchable triggers. When incoming data contradicts a published reading, the correction is published on the affected page, dated.
The packs
| Pack | Feeds | Core primary sources | Key readings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign Debt–Currency Loop (18 sheets) | Article 2 | CBO, Treasury (refunding, TIC), IMF COFER, BIS | g−r cushion +1.8pp → ~0 by 2031 · USD 57.13% of reserves · $14.7T offshore dollar credit, +7.3% · foreign holdings $35.35T, +$4.5T/yr |
| Enterprise Refinancing & Automation | Article 3 | Federal Reserve Z.1 & Financial Stability Report, Indeed Hiring Lab, SEC filings | NFC debt $14.45T (45.4% GDP, below 2020 peak) · coverage 2.76x / 1.82x · $268.8B B− wall 2028 · entry postings −7.5% vs senior +14.7% |
| College Cost & the Knowledge Gate | Article 4 | College Board, BLS CPI, NY Fed Household Debt & Credit | real sticker +281.8% since 1980 · net tuition $2,300 vs net COA $21,340 · $1.658T student debt, 10.3% 90+ delinquent |
| NY Fed Recent-Graduate Labor Market + college labor data | Article 5 | Federal Reserve Bank of New York, BLS | recent grads 5.63% vs all grads 3.01% vs workforce 4.18% · inversion onset ~2018-19 · underemployment ~42% (1992 peak ~47.5%) · premium ~$60K vs $40K |
| CDC Fertility 2007–2025 + Causal Middle | Article 6 | CDC/NCHS, Pew Research Center, Dettling & Kearney, Mezza et al. | births 4.32M → 3.61M · TFR 2.12 → 1.60 · intended size 2.3 → 1.8 · 57% "just don't want to" · +5% owners / −2.4% non-owners |
Series status
All nine surfaces of the series are now live. The later pieces — Article 1 (Maddison/OWID long-run series), the Japan module (MHLW/JILPT ice-age record, scarring and zombie-lending literatures), and Article 7 (NHIS adoption data, UN 69/131, Giving USA, Bain India Philanthropy) — carry their sources in-page. Remaining enrichment slots, on record: Hudson page-cites (Article 2), Adorno & Horkheimer page-cites (Article 1), Olivelle/Kane page-cites (Article 7).